October 2007 top 10 growing concepts list, below 50 units.

October's release of the top 10 growing concepts.

See the whole story. Continued...

Restaurant Incubator Index updated

OCTOBER results are now posted. The index has climbed for 6 straight months.

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Growing Concepts

Abbotsford, BC, Canada-based PANAGO PIZZA (founded 1986) has increased by 5 units, from 158 to 163 (3% growth). These are take-out/delivery pizza shops, open for lunch and dinner. More than 90% of units are franchised. Locations are in the provinces of AB, BC, MB, ON, and SK.

Dallas, TX-based LA MADELEINE BAKERY CAFE & BISTRO (founded 1983) has opened 2 units over the period, from 59 to 61 (3% growth). The concept is a fast casual French bakery/café, with a $4-$10 per person check average and seating for about 125. Meal periods are breakfast, lunch and dinner. Beer and wine is served. Catering packages and private party room are available at most locations. Trading areas are DC, GA, LA, MD, TX, and VA.

JIMBOY'S TACOS of Roseville, CA (founded 1954) has increased by 6 units, from 48 to 54 (13% growth). Units are quick serve with some serving beer. Seating is for about 80 and the per person check average is around $3-$6. Locations are more than 90% franchised and are in CA and NV.

SONIC DRIVE-IN headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK (founded 1953 - Nasdaq: SONC) has increased by 98 units, from 3245 to 3343 (3% growth) and expanded into SD. These are quick serve units with seating for around 50. The per person check average is around $3-$8. Locations are in AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, NC, NE, NM, NV, OH, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, WV and WY. Stores are 80% franchised.

IHOP franchisee, ACG TEXAS of Plano, TX has increased by 8 units, from 45 to 53 (18% growth). All units are located in TX.

Emerging concepts

Aventura, FL-based ANTHONY'S COAL FIRED PIZZA (founded 2002) has opened 2 units, from 5 to 7 (40% growth). Restaurants are family/casual pizzerias, open for lunch and dinner, with seating for about 70. Beer and wine is served. Delivery is available. All locations are in FL.

Las Vegas, NV-based ZABA'S MEXICAN GRILL (founded 2002) has opened 2 units, from 3 to 5 (67% growth). These fast casual Mexican restaurants are open for lunch and dinner, with a $4-$10 per person check average. Beer and wine is available at select locations. Seating is for about 60. All locations are in NV.

NANDO'S CHICKEN CANADA based in Richmond, BC (founded 1994) has increased by 2 units, from 18 to 20 (11% growth). These are fast casual chicken restaurants with seating for around 60. Units are open for lunch and dinner and the check average is around $8-$20 per person. Locations are in AB, BC and ON.

BAR-B-CUTIE headquartered in Brentwood, TN (founded 1950) has increased by 4 units, from 9 to 13 (44% growth) and expanded into TX. These are quick serve BBQ restaurants with seating for around 90. Catering is offered and the per person check average is around $3-$8. Locations are in GA, KS, NC, TN and TX and about half are franchised. We last reported on this concept in our 2/27/07 newsletter when they had 29% growth.

Cincinnati, OH-based DEWEY'S PIZZA (founded 1998) has increased from 8 to 9 units (13% growth), with a new store opening in Crestview Hills, KY this coming winter. These are family/casual pizza restaurants, open for lunch and dinner, and serving beer and wine. Seating is for about 90. Party facilities are available at some locations. Trading areas are KY, MO and OH.

Repeat growers

Scottsdale, AZ-based PF CHANG'S CHINA BISTRO (NASDAQ:PFCB; founded 1993) has increased by 9 units for the PF Chang's concept, from 160 to 169 and by 18 units for the Pei Wei Asian diner concept, from 125 to 143. The company also operates a 1-unit Japanese restaurant, called Taneko Japanese Tavern. Overall company increase was from 286 to 313 during the period (9% company growth). The company has now entered into the states of CT & MS (PF Chang's locations) and into PA (Pei Wei Asian Diner). We have featured this restaurant group twice before, in our 2/27/07 and 7/31/07 newsletter editions (16% and 10% company growth, respectively, 20% growth in 2007.). PF Chang's and Pei Wei are both family/casual Chinese concepts, with a $10-$30 per person check average. Units have a full bar and seating for about 250. Meal periods are lunch and dinner. Banquet facilities are available. Trading areas are AL, AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MS, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA, and WI.

Covington, LA-based WOW CAFE & WINGERY (founded 2001) has increased by 7 units, from 33 to 40 (21% growth) and has entered into the states of CA, NJ, and VT, with a MT Juliet, TN location to open later this year. Other trading areas are AL, DC, GA, IL, LA, MD, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, NM, NY, PA, TX, and VA. This company has been covered twice before in our 1/23/07 and 7/23/07 newsletters (33% growth in 2007; entered 13 states). This is a fast casual restaurant, specializing in chicken wings. Per person check average is $4-$10. Beer is served. Seating is for about 90. Catering is available. More than 90% of units are franchised.

GOLDEN KRUST CARIBBEAN BAKERY & GRILL headquartered in Bronx, NY (founded 1989) has increased by 4 units, from 111 to 115 (4% growth). These are quick serve Carribbean restaurants with seating for about 30 to 50. The per person check average is around $4-$10. Units are more than 90% franchised and are located in CT, FL, GA, MD, NC, NJ, NY and PA. There are plans to open 2 more locations in NJ and NY, November '07. This company was included in our 4/24/07 newsletter (3% growth).

SCOOTER'S COFFEEHOUSE of Omaha, NE (founded 1998) has increased by 7 units, from 52 to 59 (13% growth). We wrote about this concept in our 12/6/06 newsletter (17% growth) and our 4/24/07 newsletter (4% growth). The company has had an overall one-year growth of 44% from 41 to 59 units. These are quick serve coffeehouses with seating for around 20. The per person check average is around $2-$6. More than 90% of locations are franchised. Locations are in AZ, IA, KS, MO, NE, SD and TX. There are plans to expand into AR and CO during 2008.

Hog Producer Margins and the Pork Markets

Deficient hog producer margins are anticipated to persist into 2008 which could lead to a slowdown in pork production. Continued...

Cash Is King?

A well lubricated restaurant model should pump buckets of cash into the bank. Once a unit's fixed investment stabilizes, a decent sales volume will start producing positive cash flow. The Wall Street people monitor a key indicator of business health - EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization). EBITDA eliminates many of the financing and accounting policies from the income statement model. EBITDA is not the same thing as cash flow. Continued...

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Copyright 2007. All data is a representation of in house research including the perpetual surveying of more than 7300 restaurant chain concepts. Publisher accepts no responsibility for errors or omissions. Syndication of news stories are available to web and print publishers. Media inquiries are welcome. Please call 914-591-4297.

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