January 4, 2010
A Forecast for the next decade:
1) Ice cream and yogurt locations will get more into the beverage business. Hot beverages like coffee will be a driving force for sales especially helping in the lull periods like winter. This will spur brand new or improved equipment and supply sales as well as adding some operational complexities. If handled correctly, the winners will absorb some untapped market share.
2) Upscale restaurants will convert less from star chefs and more towards FOH service stars. High end operators, managers and servers who know how to perform and train consistent high touch service will be in demand more than ever. Considering today's landscape, operators will need to bid for the few FOH masters that exist as service will outshine flavor and preparation standards. We believe customers are going to choose service as the most important element as they decide upon a high end dining experience.
3) Data analysis will continue to be the best method to wring out the excesses and magnify the winning aspects of restaurant menus. Menu and sales analysis will be less graphically oriented and more sales and profit oriented based on what sells per their POS systems. This analysis will lend itself to new decision making regarding menu writing, specials offered and new menu item creation.
4) The number of new foodservice outlets will remain steady. We see no reason to believe there will be any disruption in the number of new operators who are willing to risk funds on new foodservice ventures. We do believe the operators of tomorrow will be lean and mean in cost, offerings and execution methods all adding up to a quick reception for the customer. Snacks as meals will continue on the current upward trend creating more kiosks or kiosk types of operations in all sorts of venues.
November 14, 2009
"Recent filings of alcohol versus non-alcohol serving restaurant establishments is currently at an all-time low since we began tracking and researching the restaurant business more than 13 years ago. In addition, there has been a continual slide of full bar licensees verus beer/wine licensees.
Overall in recent weeks, we have seen a drop in new business filings of around 25%. This comes after experiencing a steady rise since the Summer period that peaked around one month ago. However, "snacks as meals" have become a larger portion of new openings. Hot dogs, pretzels, coffee, pizza, taquerias, and other micro casual feeder outlets, have become more than half of all new foodservice opening activity. Mirrored in these happenings are current offerings from multi-unit foodservice companies."
September 22, 2009
"We would like to reiterate our point of view on the restaurant business environment. As noted in June of last year, as well as in May of this year, foodservice outlets who are well positioned to provide quality experiences with low per person check averages of $3-$8 are the steadfast winners for now and the foreseeable future.
Alcohol filings which are an excellent predictor, is close to a 50% drop from the highs of 18 months ago."
July 24, 2009
"During recent months research has found a new, well manifested type of restaurant classification. The,
Micro Casual Restaurant
This segment surely falls under the QSR segment. Indicators display very small food service operations with perhaps one family or one partner operations as a predominant force in foodservice today."
May 4, 2009
"Lower menu priced restaurants continue to thrive. The $3-8 "sweet spot" continues as the predominant growth story.
All seven chains who surpassed 100 units that are in our just released Top 20 list are in this category. At the same time single unit independents are opening similar types of units."
March 17, 2009
"Normal unit growth (in new opening locations) seems to have returned to growth levels not seen in three or four calendar quarters as displayed in recent legal filings. In recent weeks, location counts have risen and are close to mirroring March of last year.
Currently there is consistent multi-unit growth in the lower check average segments. However most new opening locations are single-unit, independent operations.
We anticipate future healthy growth in franchising as operators and managers seek out professional systems."
January 27, 2009
"Casual and upscale restaurants are in a zone where they will either flourish or possibly dissapear based on their abilities to execute in their finest of ways.
High touch service and genuine concern for the customer from the first contact until departing is the new minimum."
January 20, 2009
"In the past month, we have seen more than a 30% decline in new restaurant activity year over year.
We are in the midst of the current slow down. There is evidence of record levels of reduced expansion."
